It’s Our Choice

It’s a Presidential election year.  The Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary have passed.  We’ve watched as the Republican hopefuls have pummeled each other in an effort to end up at the top of the heap to earn their party’s nominee as the person who will try to unseat President Barak Obama in the general election this fall.

In Iowa, Mitt Romney won by just 8 votes.  His win, by a larger margin, in NH – taking both Iowa and New Hampshire, something no other non-incumbent Republican has done – has prompted the media pundits to conclude that if he also wins the upcoming primary in South Carolina that Romney is the presumptive nominee.

South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” that a Romney victory in South Carolina should sew things up for Romney.  “If for some reason he’s not derailed here and Mitt Romney wins South Carolina, no one’s ever won all three, I think it should be over,” Graham said. “That would be quite a testament to his ability as a candidate and a campaigner.”

If you’re not shocked by this you should be.  Just who is choosing our candidates and ultimately electing our representatives in Washington, D.C.? 

Granted, we’ve had plenty of opportunity to see quite a bit of the Republican candidates given the number of debates, the first being held on May 5, 2011!  But to have things declared over so early in the process, just when “we the people” are getting to have our say via going to the polls and casting our vote for the nominee, is more than a bit premature.

In Iowa there were 122,255 caucus goers and New Hampshire had 247,223 voters in the Republican primary.  Combining results for Iowa and New Hampshire, that’s a total of only 369,478 folks participating to date!  It’s difficult to estimate how many will take part in the South Carolina primary.  The voting-eligible population in South Carolina totals 3,434,551.  In Iowa 6.5% of the voting-eligible population participated in the caucuses, but in New Hampshire the percentage was 24.7%.  New Hampshire’s participation is typically higher than in other states.  Going out on a limb, let’s estimate that 17% (based on South Carolina 2008 & 2004 primary results) of the voting-eligible population of South Carolina will participate in the Republican primary, or 583,874 voters.  Add that to the number of participants in Iowa and New Hampshire and you have a grand total of 953,352 votes determining who the nominee will be.  By comparison, the entire population of Delaware is estimated at 907,135 (July 1, 2011), and that of the city of San Jose, California is 945,942 (April 1, 2010).  If that isn’t enough to illustrate how small the sample is that may determine the outcome of the race, further consider that the total estimated population of the United States is 312,857,890 (January 15, 2012).  Therefore, less than ½ of 1% (0.3047) of the population may determine who the Republican nominee may be.

It’s nothing new for the media to make projections in political races or to make hasty pronouncements, and far too few voting-eligible folks take part in the political process.  But to further encourage apathy and a feeling that “my vote doesn’t count” serves only to exacerbate and cheapen the process.  It is just a small piece of the chipping away that is occurring in our democratic process.  There is more, of course (for example, see: Citizens United v. Federal Election Committee).

Exercising her right to vote for 85 years, a 106 year old New Hampshire woman, Julia Fifield, who recently voted in the NH primary thoroughly demonstrates a refreshing tenacity to perform her civic duty to participate in the democratic process.

It’s time to take back the process from the media (and special interests).  Occupy Democracy!

Update – January 22, 2012:    What a difference a week can make!  A recount in Iowa has retracted the victory for Mitt Romney and given it to Rick Santorum.  The South Carolina primary winner, in a surprise upset, is Newt Gingrich.  It’s on to Florida.